Oregon will have a new Governor in less than a year. As twelve candidates, three democrats and nine republicans, vie for their party’s nomination the present Governor becomes an ever lonelier lame duck. Ted Kulongoski is in the final year of his governorship and like many of his predecessors is finding himself increasingly isolated and ignored; much of this is inevitable. It happens to most politicians as they near the end of their political careers. Their key staff members seek other positions or are fortunate to receive appointment to a judgeship. Legislators pay little attention to his requests, occasionally even openly opposing him.
Before the February session, the Governor requested the Legislature change or repeal Oregon's Kicker Law. His parties Legislative Leadership absolutely refused to even consider his request. In fact they privately were very irritated that he even suggested the idea, particularly after the very difficult and heated tax vote on January 26. The Governor was barely part of the February session. At one point we asked his Legislative advocate about an issue. Her response was, "You have a better idea of what's going to happen than we do!"
Ted Kulongoski came into office eight years ago with the most extensive political career of any previous governor. He will have spent almost four decades in all branches of Oregon's State Government. His pleasant good nature makes him an easy person to work with. For transportation in general and transit in particular he has been helpful. His innovative "Connect Oregon" program for non highway transportation will result in over $300 million capital investment in rail, transit, port, and airport projects around the State. His highway construction projects and the first increase in the gasoline tax in fifteen years will leave his mark as Oregon's best transportation Governor since Mark Hatfield.
Oregon awaits a new governor and most of us are curious who that will be. On the Democratic side, former Governor John Kitzhaber would appear to have the advantage over former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury. Both have served together in the Senate and in their previous executive positions for twenty five years. Frankly, their philosophies seem almost identical. If one reviewed their voting records there would be few differences. For this election Bradbury seems inclined to portray himself as the Liberal - probably appealing to the large Portland area liberal block of his party. Kitzhaber has more campaign money, a big advantage in what until now seems an uneventful primary election.
On the Republican side, two relatively political newcomers and a former Legislator contend for their party’s nomination. Alan Alley, a former Electronics Company CEO - briefly Governor Kulongoski's Economic Development advisor - and the 2008 unsuccessful Republican candidate for State Treasurer has been campaigning since last summer. He walked across the entire State last summer with little publicity!
John Lim, both a former State Representative and State Senator, is again trying for a statewide office - most likely again not to succeed.
The novel Republican candidate is a 6' 10" former NBA professional basketball player Chris Dudley. Dudley's big advantage is that he has raised twice as much money as any candidate in either party. Among his contributors are many NBA owners and players. The NBA Commissioner David Sterns contributed $10,000. Most former Trail Blazer players seem ready to actively support Dudley. What all this means remains to be seen.
The unknown factor in this election will be the voters. Pollsters say that Oregonians are pessimistic about the way things are going. The economy remains shaky with high unemployment. The conditions in Oregon may present an advantage to a dark horse - an outsider. We will see how all this plays out.
These are demanding times for all of us in transit, and it does not look like it will get easier any time soon. I just returned from a very intense 4 days in Washington DC attending the APTA Legislative conference. APTA holds an annual conference in March to lobby congress on the needs for public transit and get the latest information on what the coming year is likely to bring for transit in terms of federal funding and regulation. I attended along with Allan Pollock (Salem), and Aaron Deas (Tri-Met) and this is the message we heard.
The majority of transit systems attending the conference were cutting service, raising fares, or both. There was a general consensus that the recession had created a tough time for transit throughout the nation.
Cooperation on Capitol Hill is at the lowest point in anyone’s memory. The relations between the two political parties are fractious and uncooperative. Hence, no one is very optimistic about getting things done, even though transportation has historically been bi-partisan.
SAFETEA-LU has now been extended thru the end of this calendar year. This means transit systems will get their balance of formula allocations for this fiscal year, but what happens after that is not determined. The earliest that Congress might approve a reauthorized bill would be after the November, 2010 elections. The problem is funding a bill. No one wants to propose an increased federal gas tax, nor any other potential funding source. Congress will continue to discuss what should be in the reauthorization legislation, but until there is consensus on a funding source to increase the funding of this bill, it will not get approved. Someone suggested that it might not happen until after the next presidential election, i.e. November, 2012 (yikes!).
There was considerable talk about a jobs bill that would include transit, but none of the elected officials mentioned anything specific. Now that the health care legislation has passed, Congress may propose more stimulus funds for transit. If there is money, there seemed to be growing support for allowing transit to use the money to keep transit employees working and not cut service if that was the greatest need in a community. Again, where the dollars would come from to support additional stimulus funding is a problem.
FTA staff mentioned that they had accumulated $1 billion from various unfunded transit programs and were preparing the guidelines for another round of competitive grant applications for the money. While FTA did not use the term, others at the conference were calling it “TIGER or Tigger 2.” FTA urged all of us to be looking for an announcement on the release of these funds in the near future.
A new term that FTA used a lot was, “State of Readiness”. By this they mean the state of good repair of a transit operations facilities and equipment. They were very blunt in stating that they were going to focus on reviewing the state of repair of all transit operations and insist that all facilities and equipment meet some minimum standard of repair. We did not get into the details of what a minimum standard might be, but that surely will be a focus for FTA.
The final message, and one we need to take to heart, is that Washington DC is not going to solve all of the needs of transit. Ultimately, support for transit must come from our local communities and from the State of Oregon. The federal government is in debt with huge problems other than transit so if we have needs for transit, we should look to ourselves to address those needs. That then leads us to the development of OTAs agenda for the next session of the Oregon Legislature. We have already started on that with results of the Oregon February legislative session, and you will be hearing more about that in the coming months.
I don’t know if it is the stark contrast between the view outside my office window; the sun is shining, high school students are practicing field & track sports, and the general sense that spring has arrived, and the view outside the windows that face in the opposite direction; dark and foreboding clouds, trees whipped by the wind, and the sense that winter is still with us, that got me to thinking about the “Glass half empty, Glass half full” conundrum. So at the risk of being called naïve, Pollyanna-ish, or being told that I just don’t get it let me take the “Glass half full” perspective: